Beyond the Budget: Why Scenario Planning Must Consider People, Mission, and Vision
I've been having a lot of conversations lately - with funders, with clients, with leaders who are trying to navigate what feels like an increasingly uncertain landscape. Federal budget cuts are looming, donors are being more cautious about their giving, and economic trends seem to shift weekly. What's becoming clear is that everyone should be doing scenario planning right now, but most organizations are approaching it all wrong.
The funders I'm talking to are genuinely worried. They're seeing their grantees stuck in crisis mode, reacting to each new challenge rather than thinking strategically about what different futures might look like. And honestly, I get it. When you're in survival mode, it's hard to lift your head up and plan for multiple realities. But here's the thing: scenario planning isn't just about creating different budget spreadsheets. If that's your approach, you're missing the most important parts of the conversation.
What Scenario Planning Really Means
and a Strategic Planning Example
True scenario planning thinks about both the positive and negative realities your organization or company might face - but it goes way beyond financial projections. You should have a growth or positive scenario, a neutral scenario, a negative scenario, and yes, even a crisis version of your plans. But each of these needs to consider your people, your mission, and your vision for the future.
I recently worked with a client to create an evergreen strategic plan. We used a "sustain, grow, and shift" framework. This allowed them to create goals that stay the same no matter the conditions, with targeted strategies for sustaining in the face of bad trends, growing if new resources become available, and shifting no matter what situation arises. It's an approach that acknowledges uncertainty while keeping the organization moving forward.
Here's how this worked in practice: Their core goals remained constant - things like "strengthen community partnerships" and "expand program quality." But under each goal, we developed three sets of strategies. The "sustain" strategies focused on maintaining current impact with fewer resources - perhaps by deepening existing partnerships rather than building new ones. The "grow" strategies outlined how they'd scale up if funding increased - maybe adding new geographic areas or program components. The "shift" strategies addressed how they'd pivot their approach regardless of resources - like adjusting their service delivery model based on changing community needs.
What made this powerful was that leadership could look at any external change and know exactly which playbook to pull from. New grant opportunity? They had grow strategies ready. Budget cuts announced? The sustain strategies were already mapped out. Community needs evolved? The shift strategies provided a roadmap for adaptation.
The Process Matters
When organizations try to tackle scenario planning on their own, they over-rely on finance and under-rely on mission. They rush through the process without giving it the time and space it needs. And they don't engage enough people in the conversation. Effective scenario planning has to be nested in real conversations. The room should include board members, senior staff, and authentic consideration of the client or customer experience. You need to review data and information first, stay open for questions and discovery, then listen to voices from across your organization before you facilitate solutions together.
Here's the key: you can't rush this work. Scenario planning needs breathing room. You have to review the data, then take a break for reflection, then come back to process together. The magic happens in that space between analysis and action.
What makes scenario planning powerful isn't the financial modeling - it's thinking through how different realities would affect every aspect of your organization. What happens to your staff in a budget cut scenario? How does your mission delivery change if you receive unexpected funding? What shifts in programming or services might be needed regardless of financial conditions?
Why Everyone Needs This
No one is immune to the current uncertainty. Whether you're a nonprofit facing potential federal funding cuts, a small company navigating economic volatility, or any organization trying to plan in an unpredictable environment, scenario planning isn't a luxury - it's essential.
The organizations that emerge strongest from uncertain times are the ones that have thought through multiple possibilities and have plans ready to implement. They're not scrambling to react; they're able to pivot strategically because they've already considered their options. If you're reading this and thinking your organization needs to get serious about scenario planning, you're probably right. The question isn't whether uncertainty is coming - it's whether you'll be ready for it.
We're doing this work with organizations right now, helping them think beyond the budget to consider all the dimensions of their future. If you'd like to chat about how scenario planning might help your organization navigate what's ahead, I'd love to hear from you. Because in times like these, strategic thinking isn't just helpful - it's how you ensure your mission survives and thrives no matter what comes next.