Winter is Coming: Preparing Your Organization for an Uncertain Season
If you're a Game of Thrones fan, you know that "Winter is Coming" wasn't just a tagline - it was a warning. The characters who survived weren't the ones who panicked or pretended winter wasn't real. They were the ones who took the warning seriously and prepared. We're facing our own winter. But unlike a moment of crisis that passes quickly, this is a season - potentially a long one - of significant uncertainty. Federal budget cuts are looming or in motion that will impact nonprofits across the country. Economic headwinds threaten small businesses. And government agencies at the state and local level are likely to be asked to do more with less as they try to buffer the impact of federal changes. We need to stop thinking about this as a moment, it's a season. And now is the time to prepare.
Understanding the Scale
Let's talk about what's at stake. The nonprofit sector alone employs 12.8 million people - that's nearly 10% of all private-sector jobs in the United States. Nonprofits contribute $1.4 trillion to our GDP. For the first time in our nation's history, nonprofit employment now equals manufacturing.(Sources: Independent Sector's 2024 Health of the U.S. Nonprofit Sector Report; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Nonprofit Sector Research Data) Small businesses are already bracing for economic uncertainty and navigating tariff impacts and the shrinkage of nonprofits, government, and higher education vendor relationships. State and local governments are facing the reality that, as federal support decreases, communities will look to them to step up. The new state leadership may bring a more people-first mentality that could provide some buffer, but let's be realistic: state resources are finite, and the gaps created by federal cuts may be too large for any single sector to fill fully.
This is interconnected. When nonprofits shrink, they lay off staff who then can't patronize local businesses. When small businesses struggle, they can't donate to nonprofits or sponsor community programs. When government agencies are overwhelmed, everyone suffers. We're all in this ecosystem together.
Preparing for Winter
In Game of Thrones, the families who survived winter were the ones who stockpiled resources, fortified their defenses, and made hard choices before they had to. They didn't wait until they were desperate. They prepared when they still had time and options. That's where we are now. You still have time and options. But the time to act is now, not when the crisis is already upon you.
Here are three critical things you should be doing right now:
1. Scenario Planning
If you haven't read my earlier blog on scenario planning, now is the time. Winter isn't coming in one predictable way - it could be mild or severe, short or prolonged. You need plans for multiple scenarios. What happens if your federal funding decreases by 20%? By 40%? What if it disappears entirely? What if state funding increases, but not enough to cover the gap? What if economic conditions worsen and your donors become more cautious?
Don't just plan for the worst case - plan for several cases, in phases. The organizations that will navigate this season successfully are the ones that have thought through their options before being forced to make reactive decisions. This applies whether you're a nonprofit facing funding cuts, a small business planning for economic downturn, or a government agency preparing to serve more people with potentially fewer resources. Map out your scenarios now.
2. Mission-Centered Brainstorming
Your mission is your compass when everything else is uncertain. When you're facing cuts or constraints, your mission tells you what to protect and what might need to change. This is about two things: using your mission to guide difficult decisions about what to cut or scale back, AND reimagining how you might deliver your mission in a more constrained environment. If you're a nonprofit that has to reduce programming, which programs are most central to your mission? If you're a small business facing reduced demand, which products or services are most core to your value proposition? If you're a government agency that has to prioritize, which services are most critical to your community's well-being?
But also ask: Are there more efficient ways to deliver our mission? Are there partnerships we could forge? Are there innovative approaches we haven't considered because we've always had sufficient resources? Some of the most innovative solutions come from constraint. Winter forces creativity. Use your mission as the framework for that creativity.
3. Change Leadership
The organizations that will weather this season aren't just the ones with the best plans - they're the ones whose leaders can guide their people through prolonged uncertainty and change. As I wrote about in my recent blog on change leadership,you don't have to be "good at change" to lead through it. You need to lean into your strengths and help your team navigate what's ahead. Whether you're data-driven, relationship-focused, or visionary, there's a way for you to lead your organization through this season. But you can't lead if you're paralyzed by the magnitude of what's coming. You have to step into your role as a change leader and help your people prepare, adapt, and persevere.
This is especially important because this isn't a sprint - it's a marathon. Your team needs to see that you're not panicking, that you have a plan, and that you believe in their ability to navigate this together.
The Reality We're Facing
Federal budget cuts will impact millions of people and thousands of organizations. Economic uncertainty will create challenges across sectors. The interconnected nature of our economy means that when one sector struggles, we all feel it. But here's what I also know: organizations that prepare survive. Leaders who face reality while maintaining strategic focus can guide their teams through difficult seasons. This is not the time for denial or panic. This is the time for strategic preparation.
What Now?
Take a hard look at your organization. Have you done scenario planning? Do you know what you'd do if your funding decreased by 30%? Have you had mission-centered conversations about what's core and what's not? Are you prepared to lead your team through prolonged uncertainty? If the answer to any of these questions is no, then you have work to do. We're helping organizations across all sectors prepare for this season - If you need support in getting ready for what's ahead, let's talk.
So yes, Winter is coming, but prepared organizations, guided by strong leaders with clear missions, can survive - and even find ways to serve their communities through the hardest seasons.